The impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy in Ukraine in 2022–2023.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34121/1028-9763-2024-3-4-93-99Keywords:
excess mortality, COVID-19 pandemic, demography, life expectancy, надлишкова смертність, пандемія COVID-19, демографія, очікувана тривалість життяAbstract
Abstract. It is widely known that Ukrainian demographic statistics have significant shortcomings due to the Russian invasion (initially limited, and later full-scale) and mass emigration (initially labor-related, then due to hostilities). Consequently, such a widely recognized tool for studying the quality of life of the population as life expectancy (LE) has lost its accuracy. At the same time, even under such conditions, this tool is able to demonstrate largely comparable values. To determine the impact of COVID-19 on LE in 2022–2023 and to specify the impact in 2020–2021, the study modeled several scenarios without COVID-19, which were then compared with the actual ones. Graphs of LE at birth and upon reaching 15 and 65 years were constructed for each sex. The study found that the decrease in LE at birth for men due to excess mortality from COVID-19 decreased from 2.4 years in 2021 to 0.6 years in 2022 and 0.1 years in 2023. For women, in 2021, COVID-19 took away 3.3 years of LE, and 0.7 and 0.1 years in 2022 and 2023, respectively. At the same time, in terms of LE at the age of 65, the gender difference in LE losses was smaller: in 2021, men lost 1.9 years versus 2.1 years for women, in 2022 the losses were 0.6 years and 0.5 years, respectively, and in 2023, 0.11 and 0.08 years. Quite unexpectedly, despite taking into account 7 million migrants in the first half of 2022, in some cases, the actual calculated LE and, especially, LE for hypothetical scenarios, despite the full-scale war, reached significantly higher levels than before the COVID-19 pandemic or before the full-scale war. Such behavior can be questioned. However, as it follows from public reports, from the point of view of demographic dynamics, Ukrainian cities are still quite safe for life, and the contribution of Russian attacks on the civilian population to the decrease in LE for each sex may be close to 0.1 years. Keywords: excess mortality, COVID-19 pandemic, demography, life expectancy.References
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